The Macro Report can be found here .

April 2013 highlights:

• The likelihood of recession declined slightly to 7% from remained a revised 10% in the previous month
• Output by electric and gas utilities, industrial electricity consumption and miles traveled  are the only variables showing recessionary tendencies
• Retail sales growth continues to slow
• Average monthly employment increased slightly from 173k to 176k per month – barely enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
• The unemployment rate would be significantly higher if it wasn’t for a declining labor force participation rate.

May 2013 trends:

• Both UoM Consumer Sentiment and CB Consumer Confidence improved
• Unchanged average weekly hours
• ISM manufacturing new orders and deliveries both fell below 50
• PCE-derived inflation fell to 1.2% in Q1 2013, the lowest since Q3 2009, and below the Fed’s target range of 2% +/- 0.5%

CONCLUSION:

• Based on our set of 13 weighted indicators the probability for US recession remains low.
• However, economic growth remains very weak
• The Federal Reserve will not be able to reduce ‘quantitative easing’ under these circumstances
• Should disinflationary trends continue, the Fed will have no other choice than to increase the pace of printing money