April JOLTs (Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations) showed an increase in job openings to 5.38m, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000. At the same time, the number of unemployed continues to decline (8.67m).

Hence, the number of unemployed per job opening is falling rapidly (1.73):

Does this mean the US labor market is getting “tight” (possibly leading to wage inflation)? I don’t think so. Because more than 92 million Americans of working age are currently not in the labor force (compared to just 79 million at the beginning of the last recession in December 2007). This is a huge pool of potential workforce that might come back onto the labor market.

A first sign would be a stabilization of labor force participation rates, especially among men:

CONCLUSION: It looks as if inflationary threats are unlikely to emerge from the labor market. Which also means that real income gains will remain very limited for the average US consumer.